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by Kirk Shelley
I hope that this message isn’t lost in the Obama enthusiasm, but last night wasn’t as bad as it could have been for the GOP and the reason why McCain’s last minute foxhole conversion to the conservative message.
I don’t know who convinced McCain to talk about union thugs and wealth redistribution in the last couple of weeks but who ever he/she is deserves a medal.
When you look at the polling numbers a couple of things stand out – the big bump when McCain picked Palin and the big switch in momentum in the last two weeks. Every time McCain talked about working with his friend Hillary Clinton or Nancy Policy he tanked, but when conservatism was mentioned he jumped up in the polls.
If McCain had kept up the bi-partisan Maverick rhetoric in the last two weeks the losses in the US Senate would have been much worse, possibly to the magic 60 vote margin. I don’t think State Senator Jim Reynolds or Dana Murphy would have pulled it out either. It would have been tough for a conservative to wait in line for an hour and a half to vote, if you were only there to vote for the lesser of two evils.
When McCain gave hope to conservatives that he might give voice to their concerns, the tide began to turn.
It couldn’t do miracles, but it got enough conservatives to the polls to win some tight races.
By Kirk Shelley
I’m not going to sugar coat it, if you are a hard core conservative Republican thank your lucky stars that you can go to the liquor store on election day. You are probably going to want a stiff drink.
To make matters worse, on Wednesday the inside the belt way GOP apologist will announce that the GOP lost because it lost moderate voters and will push for more centralist rhetoric from the grassroots.
I’m going to suggest that the real reason the GOP is going to lose is because it has strangled its grassroots.
How?
#1. Bush’s fiscal policy. W ran on a platform where we would privatize social security, but somehow we ended up with the Prescription Drug Benefit – the largest government giveaway since The Great Society.
#2. George Bush Bipartisanship. Ted Kennedy got his way on education issues and we get No Child Left Behind – the biggest involvement in local schools ever. Keep in mind that this is from the political party that just 15 years ago was still advocating getting rid of the Federal Department of Education.
#3. The GOP Congress who forgot who brought them to the dance. What were the issues that put the GOP in charge of Congress? We were tired of the scandals, the lobbyist, the inside deals. We wanted them to get rid of programs, and not spend money. During the six years of the Clinton Presidency with a Republican Congress the GOP didn’t spend money and we got welfare reform. During the Bush years, the GOP spent money like a drunken sailor and started to get very cozy with lobbyists like Jack Abramoff.
What has been the net result? The GOP got a bump following 9/11. The grassroots was much more concerned with Islamic Fascism than fiscal policy, but since we basically won the wars, the GOP leadership has ignored the concerns of GOP activists.
What is a conservative supposed to do? Vote for the GOP and get ruinous federal spending and devalued currency or vote Democrat and get ruinous federal spending and higher taxes? Elections since 2006 have been a sucker’s bet for conservatives. The bailout deal was straw that broke the camel’s back. You can give me every argument you want that the deal was vital for our economy, but on principle it created the hypocrisy that Republicans are conservative when there is profit involved, but socialist when it comes to losses. Ever since the deal was announced, the GOP ship started sinking like a stone.
All of this doesn’t prove that GOP grassroots support has died. How do you measure grassroots activism? There are some indicators that we need to look at.
Membership in conservative groups – conservative groups have been successful in getting money from small numbers of large donors, but small donors are drying up.
When was the last time you received a letter from a conservative group asking you to return your survey, petition or postcard to your congressman? I’m on large number of these lists and it has been a long time since these groups have asked me to contact my legislator.
Why? Mainly because too many of these groups are tied into the beltway elite and pushing for fiscal sanity would be embarrassing to the Bush Administration. There have not been any good battles for conservatives to fight.
Remember the Republican conservative revolution began with Carter’s giveaway of the Panama Canal. It created a huge number of new conservative donors. A new grassroots movement began as we found out there were conservatives in America and they were willing to finance political battles outside of political parties. These new conservative groups reshaped American politics and gave us Regan and were still there when Clinton came in and created the GOP Congress.
Unfortunately when the GOP took over too many of these “conservative leaders” cashed in to major corporate influence brokers. The disconnect between limited government and corporate desires to get more taxpayers money or less accountability for their excesses cut the GOP off from the grassroots.
While the GOP and major lobby firms have been getting better acquainted what has the political Left been doing? Creating Move On and other grassroots organizations that are connected to vast numbers of people. They have a huge number of low dollar donors and activists. While conservatives have been dismissive of these groups, you can’t deny their growing power and influence. These groups have a sense of community that conservatives don’t have at the moment.
So on Wednesday morning and we look over the political battlefield and you see the smoldering ruins of the GOP it is not a time for conservatives to give up, it is time for us to reclaim our country. There are going to be some serious battles in the next few months and there is not much time to get ready for them.
The biggest battle is going to stop the Card Check Bill. It is legislation that would get rid of secret ballot elections for union representation AND would only give small business a few months to sign a union contract or have the federal government write a two year contract for them. When the Democrats took over the Congress they passed the bill within a month in the House and it was stopped by just a few votes in the Senate.
Then we must stop the reinstitution of the Fairness Doctrine which would kill talk radio.
We are not going to have time to cry, conservatives are going to get ready to roll. But take heart, simply by fighting these battles we can rebuild the grassroots networks and reconnect the GOP to reality.
Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. He is finally able to resume writing after a very busy campaign season. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.
Some Political Satire from Kirk Shelley:
Obama – I keep telling you it can’t be a Clinton, I’m too damn skinny as it is, and if she gets the nod I’ll never be able to eat again.
Voice1: Oh come on, you are being paranoid, she’s not wouldn’t poison you, I mean she’s not that bad.
Obama – Vince Foster, Espy – I tell you, Clinton’s out.
Voice 2 – Hey how about Wesley Clark – General, gravitas, take on the terrorists
Voice 1 – Give me a break, first of all “Wesley” I don’t care if you put General in front of it, it still sounds wimpy, and then when he tries to go after McCain, he got his butt kicked.
Obama – Is there anybody out there who’s like a war hero, who is still a Democrat? Hey sit down Kerry you got your chance. I mean anybody else?
(General murmur, no, don’t think so)
Voice 2 – Hey you had some other Democratic primary opponents besides Hillary, how about them?
Obama – Yeah that’s right, anyone remember any of them?
Voice 3 – Kucinich – hot wife, believes in UFO’s – should do great in California
Obama – We got California, anyone else?
Voice 1 (shaky) – Edwards?…
Loud laughter (five minutes)
Voice 2 – Chris Dodd?
General murmur, who? Oh him, nahhhh (20 minutes of key clicks and internet searches follows)
Obama – Come-on guys, it’s almost 3AM; I need to text these people.
Voice 3 – Well the only one left is Biden.
Voice 1 – Hair plug? Why him.
Obama – Because I need someone. Does he hurt me??
(General murmur) No, don’t think so.
Obama – Cool, someone hand me my cell phone I need to send a text message.
By Kirk Shelley
I was reflecting back to 1994. The first two years of the Clinton régime were going about as badly for the Democratic Party as I hoped. The GOP won the special election that brought Frank Lucas into office, the state lottery went down in flames, and Gov. Walter’s had his late night plea deal. It was the perfect storm for a GOP political activist.
I helped recruit and hosted Inhofe’s college and youth coordinator in my office. He was always hard at work running all over the state organizing every campus he could. It may have been the best political environment I’ve ever worked in. I even worked with Brenda Reneau’s campaign, which could only afford one mailing, and she won the Labor Commissioner position anyway.
What made that environment so good? Clinton helped out a great deal. Pushing for Hillary Health Care was a disaster and it was a wakeup call to conservatives about the real agenda of the national Democratic Party. New activists from the Pat Robertson Presidential campaign were no longer treated as outsiders by the GOP regulars, so there was new enthusiasm and new blood in the ranks.
And then there were the issues. The GOP had a solid conservative message and stood as the last bulwark of freedom against those who would tax us and regulate us to death. Dang if it didn’t work with a vengeance.
Now I’m looking at a very different political environment that might be a watershed in the opposite direction.
In just about every special election, Democrats are winning. The enthusiastic organizers at the colleges are the Democrats.
And while Oklahoma voters are never going to vote for Obama, an unknown State Senator is pulling within 9 points of Sen. Inhofe. Two years after an election where Democrats swept every statewide office. Why? What has happened to GOP in the last 14 years?
Issues, intensity, the base, the stuff that fires up supporters.
I keep wondering if the guys running these campaigns have ever been really mad at anything besides petty office politics. Have they ever experienced moral outrage? Have they ever been ready to take up arms because someone had their property confiscated? Have they ever been at the point of ready to riot in the streets because their government policy was wrong?
I still believe that there are still a huge number of people who are just as mad about government meddling in their lives, taking more of their money, giving hard earned tax dollars to bridges to nowhere. But in 1994 we had someplace to channel that energy. I absolutely knew that Jim Inhofe was going to be part of the solution and not the problem. I still believe that he wants limited federal government.
I just don’t believe in the rest of the Republicans in Washington D.C. They were the ones who created the prescription drug benefit. They’re the ones who ran on getting rid of the Federal Department of Education and return schools to local control, but then gave us No Child Left Behind and more federal government control of the local schools.
What is becoming obvious to me is the people running most of the campaigns are just losing touch with people who really have to think about giving a $50 or $100 contribution to a campaign.
I miss the 1994 Jim Inhofe who was fighting to win. The 2008 campaign is just fighting not to lose and that’s why Rice is within 9%.
Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 142 state and national campaigns. Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.
By Kirk Shelley
Gen Wesley Clark attacked Sen. McCain this weekend by going after McCain’s strongest point, his status as a genuine war hero.
Gen. Clark’s point was that just because someone suffered torture and was heroic does not equal personal militarily or strategic brilliance. Keep in mind Gen. Clark was Valedictorian of his class at West Point, while McCain was 4th from the bottom in his class at Annapolis. Clark plays by the rules and is straight laced, McCain’s military career was marked by his casual disregard for the rules and reputation as a party goer.
Gen. Clark has worked at the highest levels of the military hierarchy, was an advisor to President Clinton, and is a thought leader in modern warfare and military strategy. When he ran for President, he won the Oklahoma Primary. So Gen. Clark is a very high achiever who has real credibility on military and political matters – a rarity on the Democratic side of the aisle.
Technically his criticism against McCain is correct. Surviving being shot down and brutal treatment by the Viet Cong is not enough to qualify someone to be Commander and Chief.
Here’s where Gen. Clark missed the political realities – we are not electing a General of the Armed Forces and the American public knows it. If we were selecting the Chairman of the Joint Chief’s we’d care about their class rank and making sure the candidate did more militarily than calling out the Arkansas National Guard .
Are Clark’s gripes with McCain strictly personal? Why is an Army General supporting the Democrats anyway? In a nutshell Gen. Clark’s disagreement with the GOP comes from President Bush’s belief that American interests are best served by the use of force and power, not ideological persuasion.
Presidents Reagan and Clinton tried to advance American interests by using persuasion and holding out American ideals, using the military strategically to try and influence those goals while avoiding direct confrontation. Presidents Nixon and the Bush’s use the military to inflict the US will on other nations.
McCain holds more to Bush’s view of how to use the US Military and Clark doesn’t.
So Clark has an ideological difference with McCain as well as a personal history that contrasts with McCain’s own background. It is not really surprising that Gen. Clark would sound so dismissive of McCain’s ability to lead the military.
Why did the attack fall flat? Because it didn’t square with the perceived reality of most people. It takes a whole bunch of background to explain the remark. It just doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker and it doesn’t resonate with people. It’s the type of attack that just backfires and builds support and enthusiasm of McCain’s base.
Just a reminder, it is possible to be correct, but ineffective.
If you are going to go after someone, think it through and see if the attack is believable. If Clark had stuck to concerns about McCain’s temperament he might have scored some points and created doubt in McCain supporters mind that possibly Sen. McCain could be too easily provoked to anger to be Commander in Chief. Instead Clark tried to be technically correct and score some debate points, but lost the core of his audience support.
By Kirk Shelley
In a couple of months the GOP nominee is going to go after Jim Roth an openly homosexual Democrat. I keep hearing that “this race is a slam dunk, the people of Oklahoma won’t put up with that.” The conventional wisdom is conservative Oklahoma will immediately oppose a homosexual candidate.
There is going to be a challenge facing Roth’s opponent in balancing the desire of their anti-homosexual supporters to “go after him” and not alienating socially liberal/libertarian Republicans.
Here are the three major assumptions for making Roth’s private proclivities a major part of the campaign:
1) Oklahoma is a very conservative/evangelical state
2) We hate homosexuals
The first observation is true. We have one of the highest rates of regular church attendance in the country. When I’ve worked with national companies doing voter issue identification work, they keep wondering why voters who are adamantly pro-life are 20% higher than the national average. Our conservative values stick out.
Do Oklahomans hate homosexuals? Well we certainly hate arrogant in your face attempts to push the homosexual agenda down our throats, but then again so do people in other state. There have been parental protests in the liberal states Vermont and California when schools try to cram gay rights propaganda down our kid’s throats.
So what does that mean to the candidate who faces Roth? First your polling and focus groups is going to show that a large number of likely voters are going to vote against a homosexual. The temptation will be bang that issue like a sledge hammer . . . and it will backfire.
Let’s look at some other examples:
· When Roth was running for County Commissioner that was the primary hit against him, it didn’t work.
· David Boren was dogged for years of rumors of homosexuality, but it didn’t work – albeit President Boren attacked the rumor on a stack of Bibles.
· Bill Allian was running for Governor of Mississippi in 1983, several transsexual prostitutes came forward claiming that Allian was a big client. The heavy handed tactic backfired.
So what does it mean? Don’t get in the trap of believing the polls that simply pointing our Roth’s sexual preference is going to win the race for you. Name calling doesn’t win elections; you have to show how a candidates behavior impacts public policy. Some cases are pretty easy. Cheating Spouses = Cheating Politician. Hypocrisy can be identified with a holy roller caught with a prostitute. Some folks are just going to wonder, “what difference does Roth’s behavior make in my utility bill?”
Before the GOP primary we may want to ask the candidates “how are you going to go after Roth?” So here are the question:
· Do you want to make Roth’s public sexual orientation?
· How do you publicize Roth’s homosexuality to those who don’t know it?
· Can you make the case that Roth’s sexuality affects his job?
· Here’s a big one – how are you going to react to some goofy group of citizens who run around with signs that say “God Hate Fags”?
Everyone of these questions has a big up and downside and worthy of some good strategy sessions.
Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 137 State House and Senate campaigns in 5 states and has a winning percentage of 92%.
A graduate of East Carolina University, Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.
By Kirk Shelley
When you are attacked, don’t give your opponent additional ink by repeating their charge verbatim. That’s not always easy; it takes some experience and finesse to really turn their attack into a counter attack that makes your political enemies look bad.
The Obama people did a good job of it by deflecting some of the pedantic accusations by Sen. Clinton. But the Oklahoma Republican Party sent out an alert that points out what you don’t what to do. Here’s what it said:
“Out-of-state special interests are trying to convince Oklahomans that Senator Inhofe doesn’t have a pro-veteran voting record. But we know better… Senator Inhofe has been a champion for men and women in uniform and his record for our veterans and men and women in uniform speaks for itself.”
The email goes on to defend Inhofe’s record and ends with a video with vets saying why they support Inhofe. That’s the problem — by putting their charge near the top of your release you are then stuck in a position of defending yourself in your own release.
Do you remember Richard Nixon most memorable lines? “The American people need to know if their President is a crook. I’m not a crook.” Dumb. Why give people that image? “Boy I wonder if Nixon really is a crook?”
Now I’m wondering (because I am a veteran) – “does Inhofe have a bad voting record on vet issues? Doesn’t make sense, I’ll have to look into it.” By the way, to me looking into it does not mean listening to a campaign video. I would be much more likely to listen to the video if it’s at the top, before the charge. After the charge I’m going to look at it with jaundiced eyes – “they are saying a bunch of good stuff, what is he trying to hide?” Why? Because the accusation against Inhofe was placed in my mind by Inhofe supporters.
It makes more sense to start your release with the great things Inhofe has done for vets, name groups or leaders that are supporting him because of his veteran support, run the video and get me full of warm fuzzy patriotic feelings about our senior Senator. Then attack the “the self styled out of state liberals who have the gall to lie about our Senator.” Heck why stop there, go after the group attacking you and then tie them to other groups that might go after you.
Hmmm, why does that tactic seems familiar? Oh yes, that’s what Obama’s campaign team did by leaking a rumor that Republican groups had a tape of Obama’s wife complaining about “Whitey.” What was the point in that move? Obama’s team then smeared all the bloggers who wrote the story (rumor). What’s the result? Mainstream media can dismiss stories generated by bloggers because they are “unfounded rumor mongers.”
Not fair, but heck the mainstream media hates the bloggers anyway. Obama’s tactics just made it easier to ignore what they don’t like.
Come on GOP, you got to remember the basics.
Kirk Shelley
Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 137 State House and Senate campaigns in 5 states and has a winning percentage of 92%.
A graduate of East Carolina University, Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.
Consultant Kirk Shelley sent us his opinion on the email that was sent yesterday to the party faithful from the OKGOP’s “2008 Victory” campaign. Below is an excerpt from the “Victory” email:
“State Senator Andrew Rice’s viability against incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe is already being called into question by even the most loyal of his supporters. Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, founder of leading liberal blog DailyKOS, commissioned a poll of Oklahoma likely voters June 9-11 and published the results today. The poll tested opinions surrounding the U.S. Senate race, asking if voters would vote for Jim Inhofe or Andrew Rice if the election were today. Unfortunately for Rice, even Zúniga had trouble finding a silver lining in the results, concluding: “Tough? Obviously. Likely? Nope.”
By Kirk Shelley
What’s the message to Republicans? You can safely ignore Sen. Inhofe fundraising appeals. As a matter of fact, if you are really not fond of McCain, you can stay home with a clear conscious because Inhofe has already won.
Let me tell you how effective this strategy is – do you remember Governor Largent? No? Wow from January-November 2002 we were told his election was a done deal and we needed to buy our tickets for the inaugural early.
Sen. Rice is in an unenviable spot, but there’s this dang group called MoveOn.org. You know who they backed in the Democratic Primary? Obama. They are a well funded force that can sneak up on you. This is a precarious political environment for Republicans. If 8-15% of Conservatives decide to protest McCain’s positions by staying home, then the Senate race is in play. Here’s a strange scenario I’m hearing bandied about – There are a large number of redneck/borderline racists Democrats in Oklahoma (one of the last big chapters of the KKK was in Southern Oklahoma). If these guys turn out heavy to vote against the black candidate and for the Viet Nam vet, they won’t vote for the GOP down the ballot.
The “perfect storm” for Rice is Conservatives staying home, redneck Democrats turning out in droves. How do you get in this situation? Put out press releases claiming that you’ve won in June, lull your people to sleep and hurt your fundraising.
The last time I saw this tactic backfire was in Iowa’s Governor’s race in 1998. In June, the GOP candidate was way ahead in the polls. An relatively unknown state Senator and lobbyist by the name of Tom Vilsack was running against one of Iowa’ s favorite Congressmen, a very conservative Jim Ross Lightfoot. Lightfoot kept putting out the message we are way ahead, don’t even bother listening to this guy. By October Vilsacks’s hard work in the rural part of the state started paying off. He started to move up in the polls. Lightfoot then began a series of attack ads and the ads backfired. Why? Because Lightfoot’s message had been “we are the winning team, Vilsack can’t win” – then he starts bashing the guy who isn’t supposed to have a chance. It didn’t make sense, and it looked mean. So in 1998 Iowa elects a Democrat to the governorship for the first time in 30 years.
If you don’t learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.
Kirk Shelley
Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 137 State House and Senate campaigns in 5 states and has a winning percentage of 92%.
A graduate of East Carolina University, Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.
Cindy McCain Robo Call (Click here to listen)
Keating for McCain Robo Call (Click here to listen)
Kirk Shelley, Oklahoma State Coordinator of the Ron Paul Presidential campaign, filed a formal complaint regarding John McCain’s illegal robo-calling with the Oklahoma Attorney General.
Shelley expressed his frustration with McCain’s calls:
“Everyone knows the rules on these calls, or they should” said Shelley, “when you run for President or work in federal campaigns you get attorneys to tell you what you can and can not do – calling non-supporters without a phone number to stop the calls is illegal.”
“Anyone who pays attention to politics knows that Tim Pope was indicted by Drew Edmondson for this same thing. The McCain campaign or their telemarketing people sure should have known better.”
Shelley continued “the bigger picture to me is this – Sen. McCain has set himself up as leader for campaign reform by authoring ‘McCain-Feingold’ telling the rest of the country the rules he thinks we should follow, yet here he is violating those very rules he helped create. If you are going to create laws limiting the free speech rights of other Americans at least have the integrity to follow them yourself.”
“I have sent copies of the illegal calls go to the Attorney General and I’m confident he will prosecute with the same diligence that he went after Tim Pope, and I hope the voters remember that the author of ‘so-called campaign reform’ broke his own rules.”
Kind of hard to figure this one out, but hey, it is Oklahoma Politics!
The Huckabee Campaign is alleging that mischievous Ron Paul supporters sent a fake press release to the media saying the location for a Friday rally had changed. Below are excerpts from a Huckabee Campaign release on the alleged incident:
“Unfortunately we have been made aware of some attempts by rogue supporters of Rep. Ron Paul in Tulsa who have reportedly sent a false press release to Tulsa area media,” said Scott Pruitt, chairman of Oklahomans for Huckabee and a former state senator, in a press release sent Friday morning.
“The press release was staged to look like it was from the Oklahomans for Huckabee team, but the Paul supporters changed the location of our Tulsa event in an attempt to confuse media and embarrass Gov. Huckabee. This type of behavior is unacceptable.”
Political consultant and Ron Paul State Coordinator Kirk Shelley sent us this email response to the brewing controversey:
“You gotta love Oklahoma Politics sometimes. Some Tulsa Ron Paul Meetup supporters thought that it would be a good idea to do a sign wave at Mike Huckabee’s event.
It looks like some crafty Huckabee supporter was lurking on the list of Ron Paul supporters and reported to the higher ups.
Low and behold the Ron Paul supporters suddenly get a “press release” e-mailed to them which gives the wrong location.
Then to make matters really good, Sen. Scott Pruitt calls a reporter at the Tulsa World claiming that Ron Paul Supporters had issued the false press release.
Why assume Ron Paul? Huckabee has other opponents.
So Huckabee get’s a “poor old me” story in the World and Paul gets an undeserved black eye.
It makes me wonder – is Ron Paul getting some traction at Huckabee’s expense?”
OKPNS will continue to investigate