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By Tyler Harber
There are two scenarios that could help McCain win the election, while still losing the popular vote:
1) McCain will earn a great majority of undecided voters, putting him over the top in all the states that have close races.
2) There is a real and substantial Bradley effect that will keep Obama from getting many of the remaining undecideds. One could say that this happened in 2006 to Harold Ford, Jr in the race for US Senate in TN.
I’m more inclined to believe that the undecided voters breaking to McCain is more likely. The reason for this is the same as it was in 96 when Dole won nearly all the undecided votes and in 1980 when Reagan did the same. With Obama outspending McCain nearly 5 – to – 1 and the enthusiasm behind Obama’s race, those who say they are undecided are not likely to vote for him. They are afraid to tell the pollster that they are bucking the “popular” candidate, and generally break away from the race leader.
This would allow McCain to win several key states that could put him over the top in terms of Electoral College votes. This race will be, and really has been for the past several weeks, a state-by-state strategy. Both campaigns are looking at the states they need to win and NOT the national polling averages. As we found out as recent as 2000, you can win the popular vote and still lose the Presidency.Read more…
Video: Tyler Harber with Neil Cavuto (10/29/08)
Hat tip:WilsonResearchStrat
3 Comments
1. susan replies at 31st October 2008, 9:36 am :
The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people were merely spectators to the presidential election. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule under which all of a state’s electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
2. Butchey Weinstein replies at 1st November 2008, 8:46 pm :
The popular vote is a pile of horsecrap, Susan. Do you really want NYC and San Franfreako making choices for you? Is the federal government the servant of the states or vice versa? The electoral college gives you a voice, but you popular vote junkies haven’t thought it through enough to realize it.
3. calamity jyl replies at 4th November 2008, 12:57 am :
Ridiculous. This article implies that McCain is only behind in popular votes, and that would be the tipping point, but the fact is, the Electoral College polls are even more Obama heavy. Obama has it any way you slice it. And my Oklahoma votes reflect that, too. Go, Obama!
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