1994 to 2008: Why Rice is Pulling Within 9%

By Kirk Shelley

I was reflecting back to 1994. The first two years of the Clinton régime were going about as badly for the Democratic Party as I hoped. The GOP won the special election that brought Frank Lucas into office, the state lottery went down in flames, and Gov. Walter’s had his late night plea deal. It was the perfect storm for a GOP political activist.

I helped recruit and hosted Inhofe’s college and youth coordinator in my office. He was always hard at work running all over the state organizing every campus he could. It may have been the best political environment I’ve ever worked in. I even worked with Brenda Reneau’s campaign, which could only afford one mailing, and she won the Labor Commissioner position anyway.

What made that environment so good? Clinton helped out a great deal. Pushing for Hillary Health Care was a disaster and it was a wakeup call to conservatives about the real agenda of the national Democratic Party. New activists from the Pat Robertson Presidential campaign were no longer treated as outsiders by the GOP regulars, so there was new enthusiasm and new blood in the ranks.

And then there were the issues. The GOP had a solid conservative message and stood as the last bulwark of freedom against those who would tax us and regulate us to death. Dang if it didn’t work with a vengeance.

Now I’m looking at a very different political environment that might be a watershed in the opposite direction.

In just about every special election, Democrats are winning. The enthusiastic organizers at the colleges are the Democrats.

And while Oklahoma voters are never going to vote for Obama, an unknown State Senator is pulling within 9 points of Sen. Inhofe. Two years after an election where Democrats swept every statewide office. Why? What has happened to GOP in the last 14 years?

Issues, intensity, the base, the stuff that fires up supporters.

I keep wondering if the guys running these campaigns have ever been really mad at anything besides petty office politics. Have they ever experienced moral outrage? Have they ever been ready to take up arms because someone had their property confiscated? Have they ever been at the point of ready to riot in the streets because their government policy was wrong?

I still believe that there are still a huge number of people who are just as mad about government meddling in their lives, taking more of their money, giving hard earned tax dollars to bridges to nowhere. But in 1994 we had someplace to channel that energy. I absolutely knew that Jim Inhofe was going to be part of the solution and not the problem. I still believe that he wants limited federal government.

I just don’t believe in the rest of the Republicans in Washington D.C. They were the ones who created the prescription drug benefit. They’re the ones who ran on getting rid of the Federal Department of Education and return schools to local control, but then gave us No Child Left Behind and more federal government control of the local schools.

What is becoming obvious to me is the people running most of the campaigns are just losing touch with people who really have to think about giving a $50 or $100 contribution to a campaign.

I miss the 1994 Jim Inhofe who was fighting to win. The 2008 campaign is just fighting not to lose and that’s why Rice is within 9%.

Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 142 state and national campaigns. Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.