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Consultant Kirk Shelley sent us his opinion on the email that was sent yesterday to the party faithful from the OKGOP’s “2008 Victory” campaign. Below is an excerpt from the “Victory” email:
“State Senator Andrew Rice’s viability against incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe is already being called into question by even the most loyal of his supporters. Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, founder of leading liberal blog DailyKOS, commissioned a poll of Oklahoma likely voters June 9-11 and published the results today. The poll tested opinions surrounding the U.S. Senate race, asking if voters would vote for Jim Inhofe or Andrew Rice if the election were today. Unfortunately for Rice, even Zúniga had trouble finding a silver lining in the results, concluding: “Tough? Obviously. Likely? Nope.”
By Kirk Shelley
What’s the message to Republicans? You can safely ignore Sen. Inhofe fundraising appeals. As a matter of fact, if you are really not fond of McCain, you can stay home with a clear conscious because Inhofe has already won.
Let me tell you how effective this strategy is – do you remember Governor Largent? No? Wow from January-November 2002 we were told his election was a done deal and we needed to buy our tickets for the inaugural early.
Sen. Rice is in an unenviable spot, but there’s this dang group called MoveOn.org. You know who they backed in the Democratic Primary? Obama. They are a well funded force that can sneak up on you. This is a precarious political environment for Republicans. If 8-15% of Conservatives decide to protest McCain’s positions by staying home, then the Senate race is in play. Here’s a strange scenario I’m hearing bandied about – There are a large number of redneck/borderline racists Democrats in Oklahoma (one of the last big chapters of the KKK was in Southern Oklahoma). If these guys turn out heavy to vote against the black candidate and for the Viet Nam vet, they won’t vote for the GOP down the ballot.
The “perfect storm” for Rice is Conservatives staying home, redneck Democrats turning out in droves. How do you get in this situation? Put out press releases claiming that you’ve won in June, lull your people to sleep and hurt your fundraising.
The last time I saw this tactic backfire was in Iowa’s Governor’s race in 1998. In June, the GOP candidate was way ahead in the polls. An relatively unknown state Senator and lobbyist by the name of Tom Vilsack was running against one of Iowa’ s favorite Congressmen, a very conservative Jim Ross Lightfoot. Lightfoot kept putting out the message we are way ahead, don’t even bother listening to this guy. By October Vilsacks’s hard work in the rural part of the state started paying off. He started to move up in the polls. Lightfoot then began a series of attack ads and the ads backfired. Why? Because Lightfoot’s message had been “we are the winning team, Vilsack can’t win” – then he starts bashing the guy who isn’t supposed to have a chance. It didn’t make sense, and it looked mean. So in 1998 Iowa elects a Democrat to the governorship for the first time in 30 years.
If you don’t learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.
Kirk Shelley
Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 137 State House and Senate campaigns in 5 states and has a winning percentage of 92%.
A graduate of East Carolina University, Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.
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